Titans of Finance – Raoul Pal on Bitcoin & Macro Investing

1:00
Raoul left Goldman Sachs as co-head of global hedge fund business because volatility profile of hedge funds was changing from performance-based to asset gathering; wasn’t appealing to him; Moved to GLG and ran their hedge fund business. Then moved to the coast of Spain to get out of the rat race

2:45
Launched his first business, Global Macro Investor; mainly for institutional investors and family office; all of. the insiders knew that the 2008 crisis was coming but the little guy didn’t; this was the reason for creating his second business, RealVision. RV democratizes the very best financial information

5:10
Video on demand made a ton of sense to him for RealVision as the medium for people to learn and exchange views; the 'hive' mind is more powerful than an individual;

7:35
How Raoul thinks about distilling down information for people who are at different parts of the learning cycle; firstly, must find the right communicators / guests, topic and thematic that matters…RV is creating tools for people to find their feet. We’re all on a knowledge journey; everybody needs macro thinking in their life because we live in a macro world (i.e.cost of food and so on is driven by macro thinking)

10:45
How Raoul's non-traditional lifestyle has informed his world view and vice versa; he's comfortable living in both worlds; as a macro guy Raoul lives in the future. He's not a financial guru, but certain things he knows and has learned over time; he moved to Cayman Islands because he realized the Euro was going to fall; currency trends last ten years so he was ‘in his lifestyle trade’ by moving. there; building a business in cayman is great and he realized other would do it, too

15:06
Why Raoul is bullish on Bitcoin; In 2012 he knew that even more debt and the inflation/deflation mess would be an outcome of the next recession (this one); to be outside of the banking system is a good option; he got out of BTC in 2017 and it was off his radar screen; was focused on other areas; his friend Dan Tapiero told him in 2017 to look at Bitcoin again; sea change with central banks and tokenization…Bitcoin is the queen of the empire as the pristine reserve asset

20:02
He  views bitcoin far and away as the dominant player; been tested and tested as a reserve asset; Ethereum and perhaps several others will create the ecosystem; Ethereum is a call option on a whole different aspect of crypto - its not a store of value.

21:50
What institutions are getting wrong about Bitcoin is coming up with a vernacular; many of the individual bankers are trading it already in their personal accounts; custody and defining the asset will take time for institutions; false narratives around it being only for criminals and so on; we’re so used to centralization but this is de-centralized with everyone on the public chain.

"The wall of money is coming"

24:55
There will be a bitcoin ETF; custody is solved and prime brokerage too; with individuals depends on your income and risk profile in terms of sizing your profile

27:30
Charlie Munger and Raoul’s thoughts on the pursuit of wealth and wisdom; money is "lifestyle tokens" for him - he puts lifestyle above all else; doest want to work more to earn more so you can have a pile of money at 70 yrs old; the lifestyle you can have is the asset – it comes with intelligent choices you don't need a ton of money; this is lifestyle arbitrage;  also includes the people you spend time with.

30:08
Who are Raoul's go-to wise men/women? He tends to figure stuff out himself rather than look to other people for resources; Dan Tapiero is one individual who he talks with to kick around ideas

31:38 his view on the show Billions; some of it is accurate but not ruthless pursuit of success and arrogance; many of the wealthiest folks are humble; operation set up of hedge fund with big swinging dick boss is real.

33:15 What’s on Raoul’s browser? Twitter, LinkedIn, RealVision, FT; Also loves Sonos, Netflix, AppleTV, Evernote, TripIt is his favorite app. Likes to snorkel, walk his dogs in nature

35:00
What's a contrition view that Raoul holds which he is 100% convinced is true? He doesn’t think inflation is ever coming back; every time somebody tries to raise wages, technology solves it; the big inflation in the 70s is non-repeatable; we'll see shrinking population; technology is the overwhelming dominant force; wages have been deflating more than prices have deflated; world has gone for hundreds of years without inflation.